A World in Waiting: Strategic Scenarios for Summer 2025 and Beyond in the Russia–Ukraine War, and Türkiye’s Strategic Posture
Prepared on: 26 May 2025 – Istanbul
Prepared by: Berna Kanbay
Senior Advisor to the President, ASAD
I. Introduction:
The absence of a lasting ceasefire until the winter of 2026 will not merely prolong the frontline stalemate between Russia and Ukraine—it will also signal a profound transformation in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, ushering in a new phase of geopolitical turbulence. In this unfolding landscape, critical issues such as energy supply security, the control of transit corridors, the sustainability of high-technology defense industries, and the operational resilience of turbomachinery infrastructure will evolve into strategic decision nodes. Within this multifaceted equation of turbulence, Türkiye emerges not only as a stabilizing force but also as a constructive and strategic actor in reshaping the regional architecture across security, energy, and industrial domains.
This strategic assessment approaches the protracted conflict scenario through the lens of energy security, industrial infrastructure, geo-economic transition routes and technical reflexes. It evaluates Türkiye’s emerging spheres of opportunity by drawing on its engineering capacity, transit role in the energy matrix and diplomatic agility.
II. Geopolitical Gridlock of a Prolonged War: Tactical Attrition, Strategic Impasse
Throughout the first half of 2025, Russia’s intensified fortification efforts around Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, juxtaposed with Ukraine’s attritional campaign backed by multinational support, have converted the battlefield into a tactical deadlock. Both parties remain ensnared between the risks of a withdrawal at prohibitive strategic cost and the likely illusion of victory. This entrenched conflict dynamic has led to:
From Ankara’s perspective, this emergent phase necessitates the redefinition of its cross-border security buffer, the preservation of the Montreux regime’s status and the consolidation of its naval presence in the Black Sea.
III. Industrial Fragility in Energy Corridors and Türkiye’s Alternative Positioning
The vulnerability of Ukraine’s gas storage infrastructure and the persistent targeting of Odesa’s port facilities have rendered the Black Sea corridor a domain of both logistical and energy insecurity. This scenario not only threatens energy supply chains but also severely restricts access to turbomachinery, pressurized gas systems, turbine components, and advanced compressor technologies.
As European manufacturers suspend deliveries to both Russia and Iran, a substantial void has emerged in the supply of critical equipment—particularly in sectors such as petrochemicals, refining, and LNG terminals. The deepening sanctions on Iran have created structural disruptions in the availability of Western-origin industrial systems. In this context, Turkish engineering firms, which are gaining momentum in these specialized fields, are uniquely positioned to assume the role of an “adaptive regional provider of industrial capabilities.”
With robust domestic production capabilities, expanded turbomachinery infrastructure, and integrated system solutions tailored for energy facilities, Turkish firms are poised to fill the engineering vacuum—not only in Iran but also across Central Asia, North Africa, and the Caucasus. This transition provides Türkiye with:
IV. Türkiye’s Transit System Adaptation Amidst Geo-Economic Risks
Iran’s increasing isolation, under the weight of expansive sanctions, has led to a deterioration not only in its trade capacity but also in its ability to modernize its energy, refining, and pipeline technologies. This degradation elevates Türkiye’s role along the Caspian–Black Sea–Mediterranean axis—from a mere transit state to a technological stabilizer.
With:
Türkiye is positioning itself not simply as a transit corridor, but as a strategic center for energy production, maintenance, and security. The regional bottleneck triggered by the technological embargoes on Iran has, paradoxically, become a geopolitical leverage point for Türkiye—enabled by its growing industrial and technological sophistication.
V. NATO’s Eastern Doctrine and Strategic Fault Lines in the Southern Corridors
In the post-Vilnius landscape, NATO’s evolving doctrine has accelerated military consolidation across the Baltic–Polish axis, prompting reciprocal measures from Russia through Transnistria and the South Caucasus. These strategic recalibrations directly impact the Nakhchivan–Zangezur corridor, as well as the gas, fiber-optic, and road networks linking Georgia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan.
Türkiye’s energy and industrial partnerships along these corridors are not only instrumental in securing geo-economic fault lines but also in generating direct operational influence in the region. As a result, Ankara is poised to become a pivotal contributor in shaping the contours of strategic resilience from the Black Sea to the Caspian.
VI. Türkiye’s Multi-Layered Diplomatic Engineering: Balance, Redundancy, and Strategic Influence
In an era defined by unprecedented geopolitical flux, the Republic of Türkiye has meticulously engineered a nuanced and resilient diplomatic framework—one that masterfully orchestrates the delicate equilibrium across three pivotal strategic dimensions, thereby affirming its indispensable role as a linchpin of regional stability and global influence.
This tripartite strategy finds tangible expression in Türkiye’s protection of regional energy corridors, its steadfast commitment to the diplomatic sanctity of the Montreux Convention, and the strengthening of its defense capabilities in the Black Sea—driven by indigenous engineering excellence.
Conclusion: If No Ceasefire Is Achieved by Autumn 2025…
Should hostilities persist through the fall of 2025, several critical shifts are anticipated:
- While far-right movements are projected to gain further traction within European domestic politics, energy markets may experience renewed volatility.
- In the Black Sea, the long-standing principle of regional neutrality—central to maintaining strategic balance—could come under increased pressure due to escalating military deployments.
- While the Montreux regime continues to preserve its strategic significance within Turkiye’s regional security architecture, it will remain a pivotal instrument in shaping and engaging with diplomatic processes.
- As international sanctions on Iran intensify, Turkiye’s role as a regional industrial substitute is likely to become more pronounced.
In this scenario, Türkiye will no longer be perceived merely as a guardian of energy transit routes—but rather, as the principal enabler of a resilient regional technology supply chain, acquiring a renewed geopolitical identity anchored in capability, credibility, and continuity.